Welcome to The Market Regime Report
A Clear, Rules-Based Way to Navigate Markets
Markets are noisy, emotional, and full of conflicting narratives. Most traders bounce between fear and excitement, chasing headlines and predictions that rarely pay off. They go from strategy to strategy trying to find the “holy grail”, only to come up short.
This newsletter takes a different approach.
I use a simple, rules-based regime model that tells me when the environment is risk-on and when it’s risk-off. When conditions strengthen, the model favors tech. When they deteriorate, it shifts defensively into gold.
I’ve recently begun trading this strategy in real time — and this publication is where I document the journey.
Who This Newsletter Is For
This newsletter is built for traders and investors who want:
clarity instead of prediction
structure instead of noise
a repeatable, data-informed framework
a simple way to stay aligned with the market’s behavior
macro context without hype
It’s also for anyone who wants to follow the live progression of a rules-based strategy from its very first days of real-world execution.
It’s not for day traders seeking scalp setups, meme-stock gamblers, or anyone looking for personalized financial advice.
What You Get as a Free Subscriber
Free subscribers get access to high-quality educational and macro content:
Educational articles
High-level explanations of the model’s philosophy
Insights into how systematic decision-making works
Occasional previews of paid posts
You’ll understand the logic without needing the code.
What Paid Subscribers Get
Paid subscribers get full access to the model’s actual behavior as it unfolds:
✔ Real-time regime status (Bullish or Bearish)
✔ Tech/Gold positioning based on the model
✔ My personal trades aligned with those signals
✔ Frequent market updates
✔ Weekly analysis
✔ Immediate alerts when the model flips
✔ Quarterly regime model report
✔ Full access to the archives
You get a front-row seat to the real-time performance and evolution of a fully rules-based approach — from the very beginning.
How the Strategy Works (High-Level)
The Market Regime Report is built on a rules-based model that compares how growth-oriented parts of the market are behaving versus more defensive areas. These two groups tend to take turns leading depending on the underlying environment.
When growth assets (like tech and small caps) show stronger behavior, the market is usually healthy → Bullish Regime.
When defensive assets (like utilities, gold, and treasuries) start taking leadership, risk is rising → Bearish Regime.
The model looks at how these groups are performing relative to their own recent behavior, smooths out noise, and classifies the current environment into one of these two states.
I then align my own trading with the regime:
Bullish → I hold MNQ (Nasdaq futures)
Additional options: stock ETFs: TQQQ (3x leveraged Nasdaq) or QQQ (1x leveraged Nasdaq)
Bearish → I hold MGC (gold futures)
Additional options: stock ETF: GLD (gold) or hold no positions and stay in cash
There are no predictions, no discretion, and no guessing.
The goal is simply to stay in sync with whichever side of the market is showing real leadership.
Why I’m Sharing This
I’m building and trading this strategy in real time, and I want to document the process openly — the good, the bad, and the learning along the way.
My goals with this newsletter are:
To create clarity and structure for myself and others
To show the real evolution of a rules-based system in live trading
To help traders see how simple and powerful regime-based thinking can be
This is a forward-facing journey that you can follow as it unfolds.
How to Get the Most Out of This Newsletter
A few quick tips:
Download the Substack app for instant regime-flip alerts
Check the Current Regime page for the latest stance
Read the educational posts to understand the framework
Engage in comments — I respond and love discussing the process
Remember: the goal isn’t prediction; it’s alignment and consistency
A Final Word
Thank you for joining me at this early stage. This publication exists to bring structure, calm, and clarity to a chaotic market — and to share the development of a strategy I’m actively trading myself.
If you find value, consider upgrading to a paid subscription for full access to the model’s signals and real-time updates. If not, stick around for the free educational content — there’s plenty here for you too.
Welcome aboard! We’ll take the market one regime at a time.